Background and Context
Glasgow's Public Housing Legacy
Glasgow has a strong tradition of public housing, with estates built in the post-WWII era that later developed high rates of deprivation and crime.
Transformational Regeneration Areas (TRAs)
Starting in 2009, Glasgow implemented TRAs to replace decaying housing estates with mixed-income housing and improved amenities across eight key areas.
Research Methodology
The study analyzes crime data from 2007-2020, using a difference-in-differences approach that considers both timing of TRA implementation and proximity to sites.
Significant Crime Reduction Found Only Within 400m of Regeneration Sites
- The strongest crime reduction (19%) occurs within 200m of TRA sites, where old housing estates were replaced.
- Crime reduction effects diminish significantly beyond 400m from regeneration sites, showing highly localized impact.
- These spatial patterns suggest TRAs remove criminal opportunities without displacing crime to immediately surrounding areas.
Theft and Drug-Related Crimes Show Largest Reductions After Regeneration
- Theft and dishonesty crimes decreased by 20%, suggesting the old housing estates provided ideal settings for these crimes.
- Drug-related crimes fell by 11%, indicating public housing estates previously served as centers for drug activity.
- These findings support the "defensible space" theory that certain physical environments create opportunities for specific criminal activities.
Crime Numbers Before and After TRA Implementation Within 400m
- Crime numbers decreased substantially in areas within 400m of TRA sites after regeneration was completed.
- The greatest absolute reduction occurred in the 200-400m ring, showing extended benefit beyond just the TRA site.
- These reductions represent approximately 15 fewer crimes per year for each TRA area, a significant improvement for residents.
TRAs Reduced Multiple Dimensions of Deprivation in Immediate Areas
- Regeneration projects improved multiple deprivation measures beyond just crime, showing comprehensive neighborhood enhancement.
- Income deprivation fell by 27% and employment deprivation by 18% within TRA areas.
- Drug-related hospital stays decreased by 31%, suggesting healthier communities as a result of regeneration.
No Evidence of City-Wide Crime Reduction Despite Strong Local Effects
- Despite substantial local crime reductions near TRAs, no significant city-wide crime reduction was found.
- The discrepancy suggests crime may have displaced to other areas rather than decreasing in aggregate.
- This finding challenges claims that urban regeneration alone can reduce overall crime rates across a city.
Contribution and Implications
- The research provides evidence that urban regeneration projects significantly reduce crime within immediate areas but have limited city-wide impact.
- Local crime reductions are concentrated in theft and drug-related offenses, suggesting housing estates enabled certain types of crime.
- Improved neighborhoods show reduced deprivation across multiple measures, creating stronger disincentives for criminal activity.
- Policymakers should recognize that while TRAs improve local conditions, they may not reduce overall crime rates across a city.
- Urban planners should consider the benefits of mixed-income communities over segregated public housing for reducing crime and deprivation.
Data Sources
- Crime reduction by distance visualization uses data from Table 2, showing effects diminishing with distance from TRA sites.
- Crime type effects visualization uses data from Table 3, showing percentage reductions by crime category within TRA areas.
- Before/after crime comparison uses data from Table 1 (pre-TRA numbers) adjusted by reduction percentages from Table 2.
- Deprivation measure improvements visualization uses data from Table 7 showing percentage reductions in different measures.
- Local vs. city-wide effect visualization combines DiD2S model results (19% local reduction) with time-series analysis findings.
Infographics by Topic
