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Judging a book by its cover: understanding the phenomenon of fake news propagation from an evolutionary psychology perspective

Journal: Journal of Association of Information Systems

Date: 2025

Author: Ashish Kumar Jha, Rohit Nishant

Abstract:
With fake news now a serious concern facing researchers, practitioners, and policymakers alike, research is increasingly exploring the factors that lead to its proliferation. However, there is limited research on the role of temporal orientation. i.e., emphasis on time. This paper examines whether a future temporal orientation (FTO), defined as a relative emphasis on the future observed in fake news titles and content, is associated with fake news sharing. We bring arguments grounded in evolutionary psychology to understand the underlying rationale driving this phenomenon. Our analysis of a Twitter dataset comprising 465519 tweets suggests that FTO characterizes fake news and is positively associated with fake news sharing. Notably, fake news titles and the accompanying text differ in their FTO. Specifically, we show an inverted U-shaped relationship between fake news sharing and the difference in FTO between the title and accompanying text. As a practical implication of this analysis, efforts to limit the spread of fake news should pay more attention to how such news emphasizes the future.

Link: Google Scholar

Background and Context

Research Focus

This study examines how future temporal orientation (FTO) in fake news affects its sharing on social media platforms like Twitter.

Methodology

Researchers analyzed 465,519 tweets, comparing fake and real news using linguistic analysis software to measure future orientation.

Theoretical Foundation

The study uses evolutionary psychology to argue humans have an innate fear of the future, which fake news propagandists exploit.

Fake News Contains Dramatically Higher Future Orientation Than Real News

Real News FTO: 0.008 Fake News FTO: 0.388 48x higher Fake news emphasizes future outcomes (Future Temporal Orientation) to trigger fear and anxiety
  • Future temporal orientation (FTO) measures how much language focuses on future events rather than present or past.
  • Fake news titles have a mean FTO score approximately 48 times higher than real news titles.
  • This dramatic difference suggests fake news creators deliberately use future-focused language to evoke emotional responses.

Future-Oriented Fake News Receives Significantly Higher Engagement

  • A 1% increase in future focus leads to approximately 26.8 additional retweets of fake news.
  • Heightened anxiety about future outcomes contributes to increased sharing of future-oriented content.
  • Future orientation appears to be a deliberate strategy by fake news creators to increase engagement.

Strategic Use of Future Orientation in Fake vs. Real News Components

Fake News Title: 0.388 Text: 0.214 Real News Title: 0.008 Text: 0.729
  • Fake news titles have higher FTO than their accompanying text (0.388 vs. 0.214).
  • Real news shows the opposite pattern, with higher FTO in text (0.729) than titles (0.008).
  • This suggests fake news creators strategically craft attention-grabbing titles to exploit fear of the future.

Optimal FTO Difference Creates an Inverted U-Shaped Relationship with Sharing

  • An inverted U-shaped relationship exists between FTO difference and sharing of fake news.
  • Moderate differences between title and text FTO achieve optimal sharing levels.
  • Excessive differences may signal inauthenticity to readers, making them more skeptical of the content.

Proposed Framework for Fake News Identification and Management

Fake News Identification Matrix Future Temporal Orientation Negative Sentiment LOW HIGH LOW HIGH Less likely to be shared Low priority Likely to be shared Automated fact-checking Likely to be shared Automated fact-checking Extremely likely to share High priority for review
  • Content with high future orientation and negative sentiment requires immediate human expert review.
  • Content with either high future orientation or high negative sentiment should be prioritized for automated fact-checking.
  • This framework provides practical guidance for social media platforms to detect potentially dangerous fake news.

Contribution and Implications

  • This research helps identify fake news by examining its temporal orientation rather than just analyzing sentiment.
  • Social media platforms could implement future orientation detection tools to flag potentially misleading content.
  • Media literacy programs should teach awareness of how future-oriented language may trigger emotional reactions.
  • The 2×2 matrix proposed by authors offers a practical framework for prioritizing fact-checking resources.
  • Understanding FTO's role helps improve misinformation detection tools for platforms, journalists, and fact-checkers.

Data Sources

  • Visualization 1 is based on Table 6, showing the ANOVA results comparing future focus between fake and real news.
  • Visualization 2 is derived from regression coefficients in Table 8, specifically Model 2 for fake news sharing.
  • Visualization 3 uses mean values from Tables 5 and 6, comparing FTO in titles versus accompanying text.
  • Visualization 4 is based on Figure 4, showing the relationship between retweet count and FTO difference.
  • Visualization 5 draws from Figure 6 and related regression findings showing the interaction effect of verified status.